The 2024 Replacement-Level Killers: Introduction & First Base (2024)

In a race for a playoff spot, every edge matters. Yet all too often, for reasons that extend beyond a player’s statistics, managers and general managers fail to make the moves that could improve their teams, allowing mediocre production to fester at the risk of smothering a club’s postseason hopes. In Baseball Prospectus’ 2007 book, It Ain’t Over ‘Til It’s Over, I compiled a historical All-Star squad of ignominy, identifying players at each position whose performances had dragged their teams down in tight races: the Replacement-Level Killers. I’ve revisited the concept numerous times at multiple outlets and have adapted it at FanGraphs in an expanded format since 2018.

When it comes to defining replacement level play, we needn’t hew too closely to exactitude. Any team that’s gotten less than 0.6 WAR from a position to this point — prorating to 1.0 over a full season — is considered fair game. Sometimes, acceptable or even above-average defense (which may depend upon which metric one uses) coupled with total ineptitude on offense is enough to flag a team. Sometimes a club may be well ahead of replacement level but has lost a key contributor to injury; sometimes the reverse is true, but the team hasn’t yet climbed above that first-cut threshold. As with Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart’s definition of hardcore p*rnography, I know replacement level when I see it.

For this series, I’ll go around the diamond, pointing out the most egregious examples of potential Killers at each position among contenders, which I’ll define as teams that are above .500 or have Playoff Odds of at least 9.5%. That definition covers 20 teams, down from 22 last year. I’ll include the rest-of-season projections from our Depth Charts, and while I may mention potential trade targets, I’m less focused on these teams’ solutions than I am the problems, because hey, human nature.

This first installment will cover first basem*n. All statistics within this piece are through July 11 unless otherwise noted.

Astros

After a dreadful 2023 season, José Abreu showed some life in the postseason, but when he dug himself another deep hole early this year, the 37-year-old former MVP swallowed his pride and accepted an optional minor league assignment on May 1. A month later he returned, but the Astros gave him just 13 games before cutting him loose with a cringeworthy .124/.167/.195 (1 wRC+) line and -1.5 WAR. Lefty-swinging Jon Singleton has served as the regular in Abreu’s absence, but his .241/.335/.358 (102 wRC+) isn’t going to cut it if the Astros are to capitalize on their turnaround. They started the year just 12-24, and as of June 18 were still just 33-40, 10 games out of first in the AL West. Since then, they’ve gone 16-4, closing to within two games of the first-place Mariners; their Playoff Odds have rocketed from 29.3% to 59.5% in that span.

Joey Loperfido, a 45-FV prospect who ranked third on the Astros’ Top Prospects list as a center fielder, is probably the leading in-house alternative. Loperfido, a 25-year-old lefty batter, played first base regularly as a freshman at Duke in 2018 and has kept the position in the mix during his time in the minors, notching 63 games there. He’s bounced up and down between Triple-A and the majors since April 30, hitting .284/.337/.444 (121 wRC+) in 90 plate appearances at the big league level. He was expected to chip in at first base, but has played just three innings there so far; lately he’s been sharing right field duties in the absence of Kyle Tucker. When Tucker returns (hopefully just after the All-Star break), Loperfido could get a real look at first.

Beyond that, the Marlins’ Josh Bell is seemingly always available at this time of year, but he’d have to be considered a fallback. According to The Athletic’s Jim Bowden, Astros general manager Dana Brown is known to have discussed Pete Alonso, Cody Bellinger, Andrew Vaughn, and Christian Walker with their respective teams; the three besides Vaughn probably top the wish lists of every team here, but it’s not clear yet whether their teams are committed to selling.

Brewers

Few teams are as committed to a bit as the Brewers are to placing first basem*n on the annual Killers lists; this is their fifth straight season of doing so. With Rowdy Tellez having taken his fringe performances to Pittsburgh (where the Pirates’ 0.7 WAR barely kept them off this list), righty Rhys Hoskins (.218/.314/.419/, 107 wRC+, 0.0 WAR) and lefty Jake Bauers (.220/.321/.396, 104 wRC+, 0.4 WAR) have done most of the damage here. Bauers, who also plays the outfield corners, has managed just a 77 wRC+ in his time at first, which included regular play when a right hamstring injury sidelined Hoskins in the second half of May; since returning, Hoskins hasn’t been much better (.200/.282/.357, 79 wRC+).

Given their five-game lead in the NL Central and their ongoing pitching needs even after trading for Aaron Civale, I’m guessing the Brewers will probably wait for Hoskins — who missed last year with a torn left ACL but who is also the owner of a career 124 wRC+, as well as an $18 million player option for next season — to rebound. They could also give 23-year-old Tyler Black, a lefty-swinging 40-FV prospect who placed 10th on their Top Prospects list this spring, a longer look; he’s hit .235/.316/.294 (78 wRC+) in 38 PA with the Brewers and .286/.389/.481 (126 wRC+) in 280 PA at Triple-A Nashville.

Yankees

On the heels of a season wrecked by post-concussion symptoms, Anthony Rizzo was hitting just .223/.289/.341 (82 wRC+) before fracturing the radial neck of his right arm on June 16. The 34-year-old first baseman avoided surgery but landed on the 60-day injured list, meaning he won’t be eligible to return until August 16.

Since Rizzo went down, 25-year-old lefty-swinging Ben Rice has done a good job filling in, batting .254/.333/.522 (138 wRC+) with five homers in 78 PA. A converted catcher whose inability to stop the running game dimmed his future behind the plate, he’s taken to his new position defensively as well. If he could sustain what he’s doing, problem solved, but if he can’t, the Yankees —who are in a 6-17 tailspin and aren’t getting a 100 wRC+ from any regulars besides Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, and the injured Giancarlo Stanton, can’t afford to risk Rizzo picking up where he left off given his .235/.312/.363 in 712 PA over the past two seasons. An outfielder-first baseman type such as the Giants’ LaMonte Wade Jr. (who has another year of club control) or the Diamondbacks’ Joc Pederson (a pending free agent) would be an ideal addition, if their respective teams slip further in the standings, but with needs elsewhere in the infield and on the pitching staff, there’s no guarantee such a move is a priority for GM Brian Cashman.

Mariners

Incumbent Ty France has produced diminishing returns in each of the past three seasons, with his wRC+ and WAR declining from the previous year. Thus far he’s hitting .232/.322/.363 (103 wRC+) with 0.1 WAR. While he’s hitting the ball harder than last year, he’s pulling it less often, and so his xwOBA has dropped from .342 to .320. He’s being eaten alive by four-seam fastballs, hitting .200 and slugging .263 while whiffing on 22.1% of his swings against them, and his overall strikeout rate has spiked from 17.6% to 24.5%. His defense (-4 DRS, -3 FRV, -0.9 UZR) is nothing to write home about either.

When France missed time in June due to a hairline fracture in his right heel, the team gave 23-year-old prospect Tyler Locklear a brief look. A 2022 second-round pick, the righty-swinging Locklear placed 15th on the team’s Top Prospects list as a 40-FV rating; he’s got 65-grade raw power but none of his other tools are above average. He went 6-for-30 with one walk and 12 strikeouts before being returned to Triple-A Tacoma, where he’s hit .284/.386/.516 (121 wRC+) after being promoted from Double-A Arkansas. Luke Raley, who’s played 11 games at first this year and did so 35 times for the Rays last year, offers another alternative, but shifting him to first full-time would require the Mariners to come up with an impact bat for an outfield corner. One way or another, president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto probably needs to take a big swing to prop up an offense that ranks 13th in the AL in scoring (3.91 runs per game) and 11th in wRC+ (95).

Red Sox

Despite a slow start, Triston Casas finished his 2023 rookie campaign with a 129 wRC+, good for seventh in the AL. He more or less matched that over this season’s first 22 games, hitting .244/.344/.513 (130 wRC+) with six homers in 90 PA, but he fractured a rib and damaged muscle and cartilage as well while taking a mighty cut in an April 20 game. In his absence, the Red Sox have relied mostly on Dominic Smith, with predictably dismal results; after hitting for a 90 wRC+ with -0.1 WAR in 586 PA last year for the Nationals, Smith has hit .221/.313/.343 (84 wRC+) with -0.3 WAR in 195 PA this season.

Casas, who’s made use of his time on the shelf by more or less auditioning for a future job in broadcasting, was scheduled to begin hitting off a tee this week, with an eye toward beginning a rehab stint after the All-Star break. Barring a setback, he could return somewhere on either side of the July 30 trade deadline. That would solve the problem neatly, but given that the team has netted -0.1 WAR and a 98 wRC+ from its designated hitters, it might make sense to find a DH option capable of providing some insurance at first.

Cardinals

Paul Goldschmidt fell off significantly from his 2022 NL MVP-winning campaign to ’23, though considering he still put together a respectable season for a 35-year-old first baseman, posting a 122 wRC+ with 3.4 WAR, it was tough to anticipate that he would slide this far in ’24. Through the Cardinals’ first 40 games — those through May 12 —he hit just .197/.280/.279 (64 wRC+), and along the way headlined my roundup of stars who finished April in replacement level territory. He has yet to complete a full month with a wRC+ above 96, and while he’s at 111 in July, it’s via a lopsided .262/.279/.476 slash line. Overall he’s hitting .229/.292/.374 (91 wRC+) with 0.2 WAR. His swing and chase rates (28% and 46.4%, respectively) are his highest since 2019, his first year in St. Louis —classic signs of a batter pressing — and his walk and strikeout rates (7.7% and 28.3%) are career worsts; the latter represents nearly a five-point jump from last season. When he does make contact, his barrel rate is at a career-low 9.2%.

It’s very possible time is catching up to a player who, for all of his struggles this season, did recently pass the JAWS standard for first basem*n (53.5, thanks to 0.6 bWAR). Goldschmidt is in the walk year of his five-year, $130 million deal, and if the Cardinals wanted to, they could bite the bullet and pursue an upgrade. Given that they’re 48-44 and running second in the NL Wild Card race, and that he’s sort of trending upward, that does seem unlikely unless they get particularly creative — acquiring, say, Walker while trading Goldschmidt to a desperate AL team (the Mariners?). Their only internal option, 38-year-old Matt Carpenter, is hitting just .242/.318/.337 (92 wRC+) himself.

Braves

Since being traded to the Braves and signed to an eight-year, $168 million contract in March 2022, Matt Olson has played all 416 Braves games. This year, he’s played every inning of every game, but the effort may be catching up to him. After leading the NL with 54 home runs, 139 RBI, and a .604 slugging percentage last year while posting a 160 wRC+, he’s slipped to 13 homers, a .234/.313/.415 (103 wRC+) line, and 0.4 WAR. His 9.1% walk rate is a career low, his 26.9% strikeout rate is his highest since 2020, and his quality of contact is down. Oddly, after punishing righties for a 176 wRC+ last year, the lefty-swinging Olson has slipped to 88 against them this season, with his slugging in such matchups falling from .645 to .369; his average exit velocity against four-seamers from righties is down by nearly four mph, and against breaking balls from them by nearly six mph. Just spitballing here, but maybe the guy could use a breather? He has to have some PTO banked.